A Prediction On The Fourth Wave Of Coffee (Part 2 of 3)

In the previous post, I traced the general history of coffee as a product from its discovery in a Zeroth Wave of Coffee through the First Wave, a condition of industrial production meant to solve Zeroth Wave Coffee’s supply and distribution weaknesses. At the end, I described First Wave Coffee’s Market Weakness: That early industrialization robbed coffee drinkers of their beverage’s culinary potential.

In this part of our sort-of dialectical analysis, we begin with how Second Wave Coffee was an attempt to address First Wave Coffee’s shortcomings.

Second Wave Coffee

Second Wave Coffee primarily attempted to resolve the Market Weaknesses of First Wave Coffee by adding flavors to enrich First Wave industrial coffee. Pre-flavored coffee is made by tumbling commodity roasted beans in a flavored oil. Alternatively, flavored syrups and creamers could be added to commodity brewed coffee. In retail settings, flavored creamers are the most popular solution.

Second Wave Coffee changed the experience with the reintroduction of Third Spaces. Yes, coffee shops have been around for some time, but the no-frills Industrial Coffee version required table or counter service. Quick Serve and Fast Casual environments, most obviously by Starbucks, flipped the script. Labor is involved in an on-demand prep process, but then the coffee is handed off in great big quantities to customers who enjoy a theoretically more relaxed environment than the clanking and clanging of a diner with an occupancy limit of 260 people.

Second Wave Coffee sees the development of several brewing methods in an attempt to deal with local conditions and the quality of the coffee. Percolation, espresso, French press, and drip.

Second Ripple Coffee: The re-beginnings of single-origin coffees from global sources starts in the Second Wave. Think of the titular character of NBC’s Frasier drumming about his precious Starbucks Kenya.

The Market Weaknesses of Second Wave Coffee is that by changing the paradigm of what coffee drinking could be, it spoiled drinkers and made them want even better flavor. It also introduced a lot of … junk.

Third Wave Coffee

Third Wave Coffee attempts to resolve the Market Weaknesses of Second Wave Coffee by dumping the artificial (industrial, Food Tool) flavorings in favor of bringing out the inherent botanical qualities of coffee beans by careful breeding, selection, drying, grinding, roasting and brewing methods. One notes that very few flavored coffees remain staples in the 2020s. Even 1990s favorite Irish Creme is mostly gone. Pretty much only French Vanilla and Hazelnut still have any persistent market penetration.

The runaway success of Second Wave Coffee ultimately led to a bit of a downfall. Large coffee companies’ coffees often taste over-roasted because over-roasting is the way to blend beans from multiple sources and achieve consistency. Whole wheat, sourdough, rye, and white bread all taste the same if you burn them enough. 

Single-origin coffees emphasize freshness. Aficionados might even change their coffees depending on the harvest times of the world’s four growing regions: Mexico & Central America, South America, Africa, and the Pacific. Exclusions apply, but Central and South American coffees tend to be medium roasts, African coffees light, and Pacific coffees dark. This is Craft Coffee, small batches roasted as close to on-demand as possible, while linked to a sophisticated global trade network.

Third Wave Coffee’s stress on quality and culture shifted some of the market away from giants like Starbucks and Dunkin’ to independent coffee roasters and coffee shops (sometimes in the same building) to the point where some of those indies like Stumptown and Blue Bottle have become nationally-recognized brands in their own right.

Third Wave Coffee elevated the price of coffee, as well — to more than double that of First Wave Coffee. This elevation in price created opportunities to add extrinsic goods into the mix, from the movement back toward organic farming to Fair Trade and cause-related coffee brands.

Third Ripple Coffee: Sustainability becomes a concern. The specificity of growing regions reduces the available acreage for any given cultivar. There’s only so much Jamaica on Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee can be grown. Which Colombian plantation does my single-origin coffee come from, and what happens if they have a drought? 

Second Wave Coffee Redux

Second Wave Coffee Redux attempts to keep industrial Second Wave Coffee relevant by … further industrialization. What is it? The Single-Serve Pod. Criticisms of Third Wave Coffee are often leveled at the pretentiousness and high prices of indy coffee shops, along with some of its relatively laborious brewing methods. Some people proudly go to 7-11 because it isn’t frou-frou. If you’re looking for some boiling ambition juice, making a pourover twice a day is a lot to ask. Further, single-serve pods brought new life to flavored coffee. In a multi-person site like an office, not everyone wants to tuck into a cup of banana creme coffee.

The single serve pod violates a basic rule of Craft Coffee: grind to order. Single serve beans are just as pre-ground as red can / blue can, resulting in more oxidation and less flavor and aroma than in whole beans. While lower end Third Wave coffees find themselves in single-serve pods, the experience is middling. Unless more can be done to mitigate the environmental impact of, and get a quality brew out of single-serve pods, Redux isn’t an advancement in coffee, but a diversion, and one that inflames a problem Third Wave Coffee has, in a way, made worse.

The Market Weaknesses of Third Wave Coffee are rising prices, limited growing acreage, supply, and vulnerability to environmental factors. In essence: Sustainability.

Next Up: The Fourth Wave